Predictive scenarios for the development of energy integration: the nature and stages

Abstract

The desire of countries for survival and sustainable development has led to integration into regional associations, one of which is the EAEU and the Silk Road countries. The increased influence of external factors on the functioning of national economies led to the search for joint ways to reduce their negative impact. These processes reinforce the integration trends, which are considered as the pattern of development of the Eurasian space. Within the framework of a single space, the need to strengthen the energy security of the countries of the Union is growing. The gradual unification and formation of the largest single financial, energy and transport markets in the Eurasian space as a result of strengthening integration processes necessitates strengthening the country’s energy security, since weak regulation of
the energy integration process can create conditions for economic, technical and social backwardness.
In this regard, this article sets the goal – based on statistical data of state structures, target indicators of
energy development, the authors’ studies show the prognostic scenarios for the development of energy
integration in the framework of the EAEU and the Silk Road countries. The study was developed on the
basis of three indicators, the first, analyzing the importance of energy integration for the Republic of
Kazakhstan, the second, assessing the level of energy security of the Republic of Kazakhstan, by means
of mathematical modeling and the third, studying the forecast scenario and macroeconomic indicators
within the EAEU space. To achieve this goal, we used methods of comparative, comparative, scientific
and theoretical analysis of sources.
Key words: Kazakhstan, Eurasian Union, energy integration, forecast scenarios, target indicators.