Strategic Sustainability of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route in the Context of Geopolitical Instability and Regional Power Competition

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the strategic stability of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) against the backdrop of growing geopolitical instability and regional competition. The relevance of the topic is determined by the growing role of the TITR as a strategic alternative to traditional routes connecting Central Asia with Europe, thereby positioning Kazakhstan as a key transit hub in Eurasia’s evolving geopolitical landscape.

The purpose of the study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the impact of foreign policy factors on the reliability and stability of the corridor, as well as to identify adaptation mechanisms to enhance its competitiveness. The novelty of this study stems from an interdisciplinary approach combining geopolitics, international relations, and transport logistics, which allows for a deeper understanding of the relationship between political risks and infrastructure functioning.

The methodology is based on a systematic and comparative analysis encompassing the political and economic determinants of corridor sustainability and the interests of key actors – China, Russia, the EU, Turkey, Iran, and the United States. Particular attention is given to comparing the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route with alternative routes through Russia and Iran, as well as Kazakhstan’s institutional initiatives and investment projects.

In conclusion, recommendations are formulated to strengthen the strategic sustainability of the corridor, including the expansion of multilateral cooperation, digitalization of logistics processes, and diversification of transport links.

Key words: Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, strategic stability, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, transport corridors, geopolitics.