Syria after Bashar al-Assad: New War or a Chance for a Reset?

Abstract

The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's government marked the end of the Syrian revolution, which was accompanied by years of civil war between the central authority and opposition forces. As in many other cases of internal armed conflicts, external actors were involved in the Syrian crisis to varying degrees. An additional factor here was the initial geostrategic significance of the Middle East region. As a result, over time, Syria became a zone of confrontation between the interests of global and regional powers. Therefore, the opposition’s rise to power in this country could potentially significantly impact the geopolitical balance in the Middle East.

Nevertheless, Assad’s removal from the office does not automatically mean stabilizing the security situation. There are certain risks of exacerbating internal contradictions, including disagreements among various communities, which in turn could trigger a new wave of tension and military escalation. Such a possibility raises doubts about the prospects for state-building in Syria. In this context, much will depend on the actions of international actors.

The aim of this study is, on the one hand, to determine the causes and factors that contributed to the rapid downfall of Assad's regime. Until the very last moment, the military victory of the opposition was considered one of the least likely scenarios by the expert community. On the other hand, the study focuses on analyzing the role of key external players and their influence on the overall dynamics of the Syrian crisis.

Key words: Syria, civil war, Assad, overthrow of government, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Syrian revolution