A neoclassical realist perspective on Russian foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Putin era

Abstract

Russian regional activity in the Eastern Mediterranean represent a significant part of its global positioning. Reassuring itself as a great power capable of bringing loud voice into international affairs, Russia secures its national interests by building up its power capabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean, which consequently influence the geopolitical balance of power in the region. However, against the background of Russia’s economic weakness and political isolation, expressed in a decrease in its relative material capabilities, why does it continue to expand its participation in remote regions like the Eastern Mediterranean? What systemic and domestic factors are driving its foreign policy towards this region? How Moscow perceive the Eastern Mediterranean? Which strategy does Russia apply in maintaining its position in the region, and how it behaves vis-à-vis key regional actors? Taking neoclassical realism as a theoretical basis, this article aims to answer the above questions providing an analysis of systemic incentives and domestic (unit) level variables, which are instrumental in understanding Russian foreign policy behavior in the region (dependent variable), as well as globally. Focusing on the geographical area of Eastern Mediterranean, this article offers insights into Russia’s interaction with this region and within it, its behavior pursuing its interests exposing areas of potential conflict and cooperation with relevant actors, and the patterns of Russia’s interaction in regional balance of power. The significance of this study lies in the applying of a relatively new theoretical approach (neoclassical realism) to a specific geographical case (Eastern Mediterranean) in a certain time frame (Putin era) in the study of Russian foreign policy.

Keywords: Russia, Eastern Mediterranean, neoclassical realism