Evolution of the Concept of Regional Stability in Central Asia: From Geopolitical Balancing to Adaptive Diplomacy

Abstract

This article refines the content and dynamics of the concept of “regional stability” as applied to Central Asia in 2001-2025. It shows that, within regional discourse and foreign-policy practice, there has been a shift from interpretations of stability as the outcome of geopolitical balancing and external security guarantees toward an understanding of stability as a managed process sustained by institutions of cooperation and “adaptive diplomacy.” Adaptive diplomacy is defined here as a set of instruments and procedures of foreign-policy governance that enables the early adjustment of priorities, coalitions, and international regimes to a changing configuration of threats and opportunities. Methodologically, the study relies on comparative-historical analysis and document analysis, as well as the author’s operationalization of adaptive diplomacy through eight indicators: institutional connectivity, multi-vector policy, proactiveness, cross-border interaction, strategic communications, cultural diplomacy, and anti-crisis adaptability. A periodization of 2001-2025 is proposed, and the dominant stabilization mechanisms at each stage are compared. The practical conclusion is that the resilience of regional stability is determined less by “hard” balances than by the quality of institutional coordination, the feasibility of project implementation, and states’ capacity to manage change in advance.

Keywords: Central Asia, regional stability, adaptive diplomacy, institutional connectivity, multi-vector policy, cross-border interaction, strategic communications, cultural diplomacy, anti-crisis adaptability, external actors.